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Another Hike Priced In For Next Meeting As Inflation Could Start To Pick Up Again in H2

CZECHIA
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that CPI inflation rose slightly higher than expected in June, +2.8% YoY (vs. 2.7% exp.) and down from 2.9% from the previous month.
  • Even though inflation is still standing below the 3% CNB upper tolerance band, inflationary pressures could continue to intensify in the second half of this year amid consumer demand combined with accelerating wage growth.
  • The CNB has started to tighten its monetary policy and raised interest rate by 0.25% to 0.5% last month for the first time since the pandemic, and will continue to gradually hike the policy rate in the coming months with Governor Jiri Rusnok recently signaling at least another two hikes for this year.
  • Next CNB meeting will take place on August 5, and policymaker are very likely to raise the benchmark rate by another 25bps to 0.75%.
  • This morning, the monthly current account came in lower than expected, up 7.21bn CZK in May (vs. 15.50bn CZK exp.) and down from 37.31bn CZK the previous month.
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