Another Record Surge In Covid Cases, Finance Ministry To Unveil Updated Forecasts

Spot USD/THB sold off as onshore Thai markets reopened after a holiday and last trades -0.120 at THB32.845. If bears force a break under Jul 20 low of THB32.780, their next target would be provided by Jul 12/13 lows at THB32.540. Conversely, topside focus falls on Jul 27 high of THB32.990 and a break here would give bulls a green light for targeting Apr 2, 2020 high of THB33.177.

• Thailand logged its highest daily number of new Covid-19 cases today, adding 17,669 infections. It was also Thailand's deadliest day, with 165 new fatalities. This comes after Wednesday's record-breaking increase in new cases. Despite this worrying trend, a Bangkok Post source said that PM Prayuth expects that the outbreak will ease within 4-6 weeks. Prayuth reportedly said so during his virtual meeting with governors of 12 "dark-red zone" provinces.
• The Finance Ministry will announce its revised economic projections at 1100ICT/0500BST. Officials forecast that the economy will grow 2.3% Y/Y this year, but are expected to downgrade this projection today amid the resurgence of Covid-19, flagging reopening of the tourism industry and domestic political tensions. Some analysts expect a technical recession in 2H2021 and see Thailand as a regional economic underperformer come the year-end. Later this week, focus in Thailand turns to tomorrow's data deluge outlined before.
• Looking further afield, House Speaker Chuan confirmed that parliament will debate the 2022 budget bill on Aug 18-20. Parliamentary meetings scheduled for this and next week will be postponed owing to the latest uptick in Covid-19 cases.