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Another Strong Beat For Retail Sales, Doubly So With Upward Revisions

US DATA
  • Total retail sales increased 0.72% M/M (cons 0.4) in Mar after an upward revised 0.94% (initial 0.6) in Feb.
  • The control group again saw a larger beat, rising 1.14% M/M (cons 0.4) after an upward revised 0.30% (initial 0.0).
  • It’s the strongest single monthly increase for the nominal control group measure since Jan’23, a leap higher for retail sales having lagged the broader personal consumption data (which capture a much larger share of services) – see charts.
  • In 3M/3M terms, the 3% ar for the control group is unchanged from Dec, but the latest three-month rate has jumped from 2.0% in Feb to 5.8% ar in Mar with very strong momentum heading into Q2.
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  • Total retail sales increased 0.72% M/M (cons 0.4) in Mar after an upward revised 0.94% (initial 0.6) in Feb.
  • The control group again saw a larger beat, rising 1.14% M/M (cons 0.4) after an upward revised 0.30% (initial 0.0).
  • It’s the strongest single monthly increase for the nominal control group measure since Jan’23, a leap higher for retail sales having lagged the broader personal consumption data (which capture a much larger share of services) – see charts.
  • In 3M/3M terms, the 3% ar for the control group is unchanged from Dec, but the latest three-month rate has jumped from 2.0% in Feb to 5.8% ar in Mar with very strong momentum heading into Q2.