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Another Stronger Than Expected Initial Claims Print

US DATA
  • The details of both GDP and durable goods beats revealed a softer message than the headline beats suggested but initial jobless claims offer a simpler read.
  • At 186k (cons 205k) from a minimally upward revised 192k, claims printed the lowest single week since April, only 13k above the 2019 low and 20k above the March 2022 low.
  • The four-week average of 198k continues to trend lower and is now notably below the 218k averaged in 2019 rather than showing any sign of a deteriorating labour market.
  • Continuing claims did however nudge higher to 1675k (cons 1658k) but remain below the 2019 average as a crude benchmark for tightness.

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