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Answer on Double-Dip Recession Continued

  • Answer Continued: We monitor a lot of nonstandard high frequency data.
    That's become very important. That data shows the pace of the recovery
    looks like it has slowed since the mid-June virus spike. Some measures of
    consumer spending based on credit/debit card data have gone down.
    Recent indicators show slowing job growth, esp in small business. Same
    with hotels, restaurants, etc. Consumer surveys softening again. Some
    areas like housing are strong. On balance, data pointing to slowing pace
    in recovery.
  • I want to stress it's too early to say how large that is and how sustained it
    will be, have to wait and see the actual data on unemployment/spending.
    We're monitoring very carefully. The path of the economy is going to
    depend to a very high extent on the course of the virus, on the measures
    that we take to keep it in check. Social distancing measures and fast
    reopening of the economy actually go together. They're not in competition
    with each other.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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