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Antipodean FX Grinds Higher Amid Bolstered Equities

FOREX
  • Positive sentiment across major equity benchmarks have weighed on the greenback to start the week, with the USD index declining around 0.35% as we approach the APAC crossover. The more positive mood has boosted the more risk sensitive currencies in G10 such as AUD, NZD and GBP, with emerging market currencies also being favoured.
  • AUDUSD is registering gains of 0.75% on Monday and it is worth noting the RBA minutes will be released overnight. Overall, AUDUSD remains bearish following the recent breach of support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low. A clear break of 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and this would open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection.
  • GBP has also started the week on a firmer note as we approach Tuesday’s partial release of labour market data and Wednesday’s CPI. In similar vein to Aussie, GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish, and the recent recovery is considered corrective. A continuation lower would refocus attention on support and the bear trigger, at 1.2037, the Oct 4 low.
  • In emerging markets, the Polish Zloty is the best performer (EURPLN down 2%) following the weekend election and the firmer equities have underpinned a strong bid for the likes of MXN, HUF and ZAR, all rising around 1% versus the dollar. Despite no major developments regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, Israeli assets continue to suffer, seeing USD/ILS rise 0.9%, topping 4.00 for the first time in 8 years.
  • Other than aforementioned data releases, Canadian CPI and US retail sales figures will highlight Tuesday’s economic calendar.
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