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Antipodeans on Top Ahead of Expected Fed Skip

FOREX
  • The Fed decision takes focus going forward, with consensus and markets looking for the FOMC to keep rates unchanged - pausing their tightening campaign for the first time in this cycle.
  • Headed into the decision itself, the USD is mid-range and toward June's lower levels, but the USD index has found some support at the 100-dma of 103.043. Any post-Fed weakness would open the 50-dma below for direction at 102.613 ahead of levels last seen in early May.
  • Elsewhere, AUD/USD trades in the midst of the longest streak of higher lows in six years. The pair's rally off the May31 low has seen higher lows for 10 consecutive sessions, the longest such streak since end-2017, which extended to 16 consecutive trading days and spanned a ~5% rally. Price has recently cleared 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May, reinforcing current conditions and this signals scope for a test of 0.6818, the May 10 high and a key resistance.
  • AUD outperformance continues to stem from more solid industrial commodities prices (China iron ore prices are up 20% off the late May low), compounding the impact of the more hawkish RBA decision.
  • Outside of the Fed decision, the May PPI report will also be keenly watched, after yesterday's inflation release cleared the decks for a Fed pause later today. Markets watch for PPI to to slow moderately on a final demand basis, falling 0.1% on the month from April's +0.2%.
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