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ANZ Affirm Short-Term $1,900/oz Target

GOLD

ANZ note that "the conditions under which gold can flourish are diminishing quickly. Big moves in the USD appear behind us, while the bond market has stabilised. Inflation expectations is the one factor that can spark a final rally in gold prices."

  • "Our gold valuation model still suggests gold is undervalued. The rally in bonds and recent strength in the USD have seen investors demand for gold wane. However, the undervaluation of around $150/oz has been driven by expectations that the spike in inflation will transitory."
  • "Pricing pressure remains intense. CPI rose to 5.4% in July. House prices continue to surge, while shipping rates have hit record highs. Even so, breakeven rates for a 30-Year Treasuries have barely budged. Only a small rise pushed our gold valuation model to nearly $2,000/oz."
  • "Combined with a slightly weaker USD amid a stabilisation in the growth dynamic, we still expect the gold price to inch higher. As such, we maintain our short-term price target of $1,900/oz."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Energy BulletsCommodities
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Energy BulletsCommodities

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