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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
THAILAND
Headline inflation in Thailand seems to have peaked at 7.9% y/y and moderated to 6% in October but core currently seems stuck at around 3.2%, just above the upper end of the target band. Economists at ANZ Bank though believe that low inflation will be standard for Thailand for structural reasons thus limiting rate hikes.
- As in many countries, the current surge in headline inflation has been due to stronger global commodity prices, especially energy. According to ANZ, once this unwinds Thailand’s low investment rate, high indebtedness, unfavourable demographics and low income growth should put downward pressure on domestic demand and thus inflation.
- Demand-driven low inflation should also mean low interest rates but a “structural current account surplus”, which means that the BoT may need to pressure the THB to unwind its appreciation.
- Thailand was one of the last central banks in non-Japan Asia to tighten this cycle, as growth was slow to recover. They were disproportionately hit by travel bans during the pandemic but are now expecting tourist numbers to more than double next year compared with this.
Thailand CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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