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ANZ: China's GDP Forecast Upgraded On Policy Normalising

CHINA

ANZ note that “China has stepped up to ease zero-COVID measures and bail out the property sector. The excessive tightening has dragged 2022 GDP by 1.3ppt and 1.0ppt.”

  • “Based on our scenario analysis, while policy normalisation will partially redeem the losses next year, we have revised our GDP forecast for 2023 to 5.4% from 4.2% previously.”
  • “GDP growth will still slow to 4.0% in 2024, due to structural impediments and the base effect. Given the change in growth profile, we have pushed back our call for an interest rate cut of 20bp from 2023 to 2024.”
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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