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ANZ Do Not Forecast Any RBI Rate Cut Before August

INDIA
  • ANZ expect the MPC to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% next Friday. Even as core inflation decelerated and can go lower in coming months, food inflation remains elevated above 7%. With strong GDP growth in the background, the RBI can afford to remain patient in its inflation fight and wait for food inflation to decline further, they say.
  • ANZ believe both current inflation and its four-quarter ahead forecast need to fall in the 4-4.5% range before the RBI is ready to turn neutral, which is likely in June 2024, in ANZ’s view. However, they do not forecast any rate cut before August.
  • The divide between the RBI and non-RBI members in the MPC may also persist, with the latter continuing their dovish tone. In contrast, the RBI members are likely to remain hawkish for longer. The RBI may continue to express its growing comfort with inflation via the liquidity route, keeping the deficit narrow and the call rate aligned with the repo rate, ANZ add.
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