ANZ: Momentum Slowing

ANZ note that “nationally, spending lost a little momentum in August.”

• “ANZ-observed spending excluding petrol fell 0.1% M/M in August, a little weaker than the seasonal variation in 2019 when spending increased 0.4% M/M (note that all M/M changes refer to the change in daily average spending between 1 and 21 August and the daily average for July). This is concentrated in a loss of momentum in discretionary retail.”
• “Resilient household balance sheets and the strong labour market may dilute the impacts of rate hikes on spending in the near term, but consumer spending will slow as rates tighten. The question is the speed of that slowdown, and we will be watching spending data closely for how this evolves.”
• “Queensland and WA spending momentum is far stronger than other states when we compare spending levels in August to the average for 2019. NSW and Victoria are the weakest of all states.”