ANZ On NZD Pre-RBNZ

ANZ note that "NZD/USD is back above $0.7200, taking a lead from U.S. equities, commodities and cryptocurrencies, which all regained poise overnight. While there was some moderation in the USD itself, the NZD has done well on most crosses, singling itself out as a performer. This could be pre-positioning ahead of tomorrow's MPS (past MPSs have boosted the Kiwi), and yesterday's Q1 retail sales data was solid. But there are a lot of reasons for the RBNZ to remain cautious, and we think they will play it with a straight bat. If we see the OCR track brought back (as we think is likely), that could cause some interpretation issues (especially if it signals hikes in, say late 2023), and hence volatility, but the main theme is one of the RBNZ echoing the cautious tone of other central banks."