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DOLLAR: ANZ warn that the USD "strength is not the beginning of a new trend.
While the rekindling of the correlation between the DXY & the yield differential
may last for some time, we think risk appetite will dominate & the impact of
higher US yields will vary across different currencies on a longer term basis.
The most important question will be what higher yields will mean for risk."
- ANZ note that there "is an element of positioning unwind underpinning the
recent USD strength. While some of the factors that were previously underpinning
USD weakness have also faded e.g. growth elsewhere. Also, the US admin has
remained surprisingly quiet on geopolitics, trade wars & FX." However, neither
of these factors are likely to last much longer, in ANZ's view.
- While ANZ think "the current squeeze higher in the USD may last a bit longer,
on a medium-term basis we remain mildly bearish. The Fed is no longer the only
central bank to tighten." ANZ like playing for "USD strength vs. cyclicals &
prefer to wait for this positioning unwinding to run its course against the
defensive currencies like the EUR & JPY. Then we will use any further weakness
to re-engage long positions, both against the USD & the AUD & NZD."