ANZ write "after the release of key.......>

AUSTRALIA: ANZ write "after the release of key partial indicators this week, we

expect Q4 GDP to have risen a soft 0.2% q/q, following the 0.3% q/q rise in Q3.

This would see annual growth decline to 2.4%. GDP growth, at +0.2% q/q and +2.4%

y/y, looks to be lower than the 2.8% annual growth the RBA forecast in its

February Statement on Monetary Policy. The main new pieces of information since

our preliminary forecast last week are weaker wages, profits and inventories but

stronger net exports and government finances. The surprises in these partial

data have largely offset each other. Government spending looks to have risen a

very strong 1.3% q/q and will contribute 0.4ppt to growth in the quarter. In

tomorrow's report, the focus will be on the household indicators - consumption

and income. Weak retail sales volumes (+0.1%) point to relatively modest growth

in consumer spending. While retail spending accounts for only around 30% of

consumption, ongoing weakness in car sales, falling house prices and tighter

credit conditions will all weigh on consumer spending."