ANZ write "the unemployment rate........>

NEW ZEALAND: ANZ write "the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% in the March

quarter, slightly lower than the market expected. But the details weren't strong

- the fall was due to a decline in participation with employment growth actually

falling 0.2% in the quarter. Momentum in the labour market appears to have

slowed, consistent with the soft GDP outturns seen over the past year. Wage

inflation ticked up 0.3% q/q, leaving annual growth at 2.0% y/y, less than we

and the RBNZ expected. Looking through temporary factors, underlying wage

inflation is very subdued. This data is consistent with the softer growth

outlook that implicitly lay behind the RBNZ's dovish March OCR Review, and is

set to be formalised in the May MPS. We continue to expect the first rate cut in

August, with next week's MPS to set the stage."