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APF SALES: Q2 calendar due at 16:30GMT

BOE
  • The Bank of England will announce its calendar of APF sales operations for Q2 at 16:30GMT/10:30ET today.
  • In Q1, each operation was sized at GBP650mln with 5 operations for each maturity bucket (i.e. 15 in total across shorts, mediums and longs).
  • To date there have been GBP15.07bln of sales (in cash paid terms), however this equates to a reduction in the balance sheet of GBP19.53bln (the gilts are held on the balance sheet at their purchase price until they are sold). Note that there is still one long-dated sales op due Monday in Q1-23. This means that by the end of Q1-23, the Bank's aim of reducing the balance sheet GBP40bln over 12 months through active sales will be over 50% complete.
  • Our base case would see slightly similar size operations of around GBP600mln, but with 6 in each maturity bucket in the quarter (so 18 sales ops in total).
  • Any increase in the number of sales ops or the size of the operations above this level, we think would (all else equal) lead to a steepening of 10s30s as the long-end is more sensitive to additional supply. However, given the large moves across core FI (including gilts) today, any reaction may be more muted.
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