Apolline Menut and Antonio Garcia Pascual.....>

SPAIN: Apolline Menut and Antonio Garcia Pascual at Barclays write that it is

unlikely that the Catalan situation and the Thursday deadline to clarify the

declaration of independence will pass, "a declaration of independence appears

more likely than not".

- Barclays write that the Catalan government would then call regional elections

thereby keeping more radical supporters such as the CUP happy but also the

moderates who want fresh elections.

- The central government then has a choice as to whether to trigger Art. 155

after the declaration of independence, "as it might not want to be perceived as

interfering with regional elections".

- Yet, if fresh elections are not called, then Art. 155 would be triggered and

the central government would call for regional elections.

- Polls have the separatist, ERC Party leading but recent events may shift

public opinion. "The government has offered the Catalonian president the

opportunity to participate in constitutional reform, but has continued to demand

that he first drop the illegal unilateral declaration of independence."