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APP To End July 1, Rate Lift-Off On July 21. Possibility Of 50bp Hikes From Sep.

ECB
  • As expected, the ECB has announced that the APP will end in early July (July 1) and has signaled that rate liftoff will occur at the July 21 meeting (""the Governing Council intends to raise the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points at its July monetary policy meeting.").
  • We had warned in our ECB Preview that the bank could signal the possiblity of hiking rates in 50bp increments by referring to the 'magnitude' of policy hikes being data dependent. The ECB today stated "The calibration of this rate increase will depend on the updated medium-term inflation outlook. If the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates, a larger increment will be appropriate at the September meeting."
  • While revising down the growth forecasts, the ECB forecasts inflation resting above target in 2024 at 2.1%.
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