April 29, 2024 10:03 GMT
Apr Housing Wrap: Potential For Surge If Interest Rates Decline
CANADA
- Potential demand resurgence from BoC tone shift on interest-rate cuts and government construction plans remains uncertain.
- March home sales +0.5% with CREA noting sharp uptick in sales at the end of the month. Sales were -3.1% MOM in February.
- Teranet Housing Index prices +5.6% YOY, prior +4.5%.
- CMHC 2024 outlook forecasts average prices +20% by 2026.
- BoC's MPR listed jump in house prices as risk to inflation outlook. Bank will update its views in Financial Stability Review on May 9.
- Six-month moving average housing starts fell in February to 244K in March, or -1.6%. Starts were flat in Q1.
- National Bank of Canada said the housing supply deficit hit a record in 2024Q1.
- The Government announced CAD8.5B of spending on housing over 5Y in the federal budget alongside measures to curb immigration that is adding to housing demand. Some economists have noted the plan to build millions of new homes in coming years is far beyond the industry's current capacity.
- Voter anger over housing affordability has put Justin Trudeau's Liberals well behind in public opinion polls ahead of an election due next year.
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