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April CPI Mini Preview: Importance To Be Determined By Riksbank Minutes

SWEDEN
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Swedish April CPI is due tomorrow at 0700BST/0800CET, with analysts expecting a small uptick after March’s surprisingly low print.

  • In some ways, the importance of the inflation figure will best be gauged after the release of the Riksbank’s May meeting minutes at 0830BST tomorrow.
  • Following the guidance for 2 further rate cuts in H2 2024 (i.e. making a June rate cut unlikely), it will be interesting to see if any Executive Board members still consider a June cut to be on the table, or whether any members strongly considered holding rates in May.
  • In any case, we will still get one more inflation print on June 14 before the June 27 meeting.
  • Current Bloomberg consensus sees CPIF ex-energy at 3.0% Y/Y, while the Riksbank expected 3.3% Y/Y in the March MPR.
  • An in-line reading would see the Riksbank’s March MPR forecast error reduce to -0.3pp (vs -0.4pp after the March print).
  • Analysts generally expect rents to exert upward pressure on inflation in April, alongside food and energy.
  • See below for a selection of analyst views from Scandinavian banks:


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Swedish April CPI is due tomorrow at 0700BST/0800CET, with analysts expecting a small uptick after March’s surprisingly low print.

  • In some ways, the importance of the inflation figure will best be gauged after the release of the Riksbank’s May meeting minutes at 0830BST tomorrow.
  • Following the guidance for 2 further rate cuts in H2 2024 (i.e. making a June rate cut unlikely), it will be interesting to see if any Executive Board members still consider a June cut to be on the table, or whether any members strongly considered holding rates in May.
  • In any case, we will still get one more inflation print on June 14 before the June 27 meeting.
  • Current Bloomberg consensus sees CPIF ex-energy at 3.0% Y/Y, while the Riksbank expected 3.3% Y/Y in the March MPR.
  • An in-line reading would see the Riksbank’s March MPR forecast error reduce to -0.3pp (vs -0.4pp after the March print).
  • Analysts generally expect rents to exert upward pressure on inflation in April, alongside food and energy.
  • See below for a selection of analyst views from Scandinavian banks: