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April FOMC Minutes Preview (1/2): Deutsche Eyeing Fed's Outlook Evolution

FED

The minutes from the Apr 27-28 FOMC meeting are released at 1400ET on Wednesday. A few sell-side previews:

  • Deutsche Bank characterizes the minutes as already "somewhat stale", but is still eyeing any signs of the Fed's take on the outlook: "Though the minutes ... will likely be heavily scrutinized for signs of how the Fed's economic outlook has evolved and potential implications for their asset purchase program, they are somewhat stale in light of the lackluster April jobs report and stronger-than-expected inflation data". With regard to the Fed's messaging in general, Deutsche does not expect FOMC members "to express much concern about the recent rise in inflation expectations nor alter their messaging with respect to the near-term policy trajectory".
  • BMO FICC is looking to the minutes to "offer insight into the Fed's current thinking on the pace of the recovery and, of course, the risk that inflation picks up in a way that is ultimately considered 'too much' by policymakers". BMO says "the FOMC is content to be behind the curve on inflation this cycle and therefore far more comfortable characterizing consumer pricing pressures as transitory than many investors assume."

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