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April FOMC Minutes Preview (2/2): TD Focused On "Substantial" Timing

FED
  • TD expects the focus for the April minutes to be on "when officials might see "substantial" enough progress for QE tapering. We don't expect any more specificity than on the day the meeting ended, but that means a dovish tone. In the chair's words, 'it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved.' TD also notes that "Fedspeak has remained dovish since the meeting, even after the April CPI report."
  • ING says we could see signals that a few FOMC members weren't quite as dovish as the overall meeting message implied, though they shouldn't do "too much damage" market-wise: "Perhaps the key takeaway from Powell's press conference that day were the words 'now is not the time to talk tapering'. With that in mind, we expect the markets to absorb in their stride any suggestions that a 'few participants' were a little less dovish."
  • ANZ sees the minutes as "likely to be dated given the [respective] downside and upside shocks on jobs and inflation. The key question is how this news might impact the timing of tapering talk."
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