April FOMC outlook from Goldman Sachs: No.......>

FED: April FOMC outlook from Goldman Sachs: No major policy changes; Fed

officials content with current forward guidance for now, and further steps such

as yield curve control are not on the agenda.

- Statement: Will have to take on board the dramatic deterioration in the

economy since the last meeting in March. To note that activity has "contracted

sharply," note surge in layoffs, to mark-to-market household spending and

business investment (have "declined sharply").

- Press conference: Powell likely to emphasize that Fed ready to intervene

further if necessary.

- IOER: Unch (fear of misinterpretation of "raising rates"), but close call.

- Future action: First hike not until late 2023. Could see FOMC moving to more

dovish guidance (though not at this meeting). Switch to regular monthly asset

purchase schedule by mid-year; $100bln Tsy + $35bln MBS monthly. 

- Negative rates and buying equities appear quite unlikely in near future.