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April PPI falls to 4.1% y/y, but m/m data an upside surprise
German PPI surprised to the upside on a monthly reading in April, recording the first m/m gain since Sept 2022, although the year-on-year reading came in below expectations.
- April PPI rose 0.3% m/m and rose 4.1% y/y
- Consensus had been looking for a seventh consecutive decline in Germany PPI in April, albeit to a lesser extent at around -0.3% m/m, whilst easing 2.7pp to +4.8% y/y.
- Cooling energy prices have been driving the fall in producer prices, which now stands substantially lower than the record peak of +45.8% y/y recorded in August/September.
- A main driver behind the y/y increase is capital goods, with a rise of 6.8 % over the same month last year. Compared to March 2023, prices rose by 0.6%.
- Energy prices rose 2.8 % y/y. Compared to March 2023, they rose by 1.0 % - the first month-on-month increase since September 2022.
- Little new for the ECB in the data, which lags CPI by a month. However, it does underline the factory gate inflation is still falling, although upside surprises on a monthly basis will continue to pop up.
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