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April Price/Cost Pressures Softer Than Q1

AUSTRALIA DATA

NAB’s measure of business confidence was stable at 1 in April but conditions eased further to 7 from 9, only slightly above the series average. Confidence has been fairly steady around 1 through 2024 but conditions have eased 3 points since December and 18 points since the September 2022 peak. The main activity components eased further with employment now below the historical average, while April price/cost components moderated compared with Q1.

  • Employment fell 4.5 points to 1.9, which is still signalling positive labour demand but at a lot slower pace than it had been previously. It was the lowest reading since January 2022.
Australia NAB business employment vs employment y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

  • Forward looking orders fell to -7.2 from -1.4, the lowest since the Covid-impacted August 2020. NAB says that the deterioration was due to large drops in mining, manufacturing and construction, while retail and wholesale are also negative.
  • On a more positive note, capacity utilisation was unchanged and investment high.
  • Labour costs moderated to 1.5% over 3-months from 1.7%, the lowest since September 2021 but still above the post-2000 average. Purchase costs eased to 1.2% from 1.5%, in line with average.
  • Prices of final products rose 0.9% over 3-months up from March’s 0.7% but retail moderated 0.5pp to 0.9%. Both are below the Q1 average though signalling that the start of Q2 saw a moderation in price pressures.
  • Services are facing better business conditions while retail are the “most concerning”.
  • See NAB survey here.
Australia NAB business price/cost measures

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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