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Around 25bp more priced near-term vs pre-ECB and a 2.50% terminal rate

EURIBOR
  • Euribor futures are leading the way lower this morning with Whites down up to 8.0 ticks, led by the Dec-22 and Mar-23 contracts. This puts both these contracts down 23.5/24.0 ticks respectively since Wednesday's close - almost an entire extra 25bp hike priced into the curve.
  • The curve is now peaking with the Deposit Rate around 2.50% (around 175bp higher than current rates), whereas on Wednesday's close, the curve peaked at 2.355% in the near-term. So around 60% probability of an extra 25bp hike to the terminal rate, and with the terminal rate coming a quarter earlier now with the peak in the Jun-23 contract rather than the Sep-23 contract.

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