-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessAsahi (ASABRE; Baa1 S, NR) {2502 JT Equity}; €Benchmark 5 & 8y Mandate
We see margins lower than comp's (though Moody's sees it comparable to peers) and no US exposure is worth noting given it has a history of debt funded brand acquisition to enter new markets. Most recent example is 2020 acquisition of Carlton (CUB) from AB-InBev for $16b to enter Australian markets - pushed leverage up to 6* & took ~3yrs to come down to pre-acquisition levels - ratings were left unchanged through the spike. Bar acquisitions we don't see near-term rating action in either direction.
- Recent results; €17b in sales, gross profit of €6b (at margin of 64%), adj. operating income at €1.6b (~9% margin), adj. EBITDA of €2.4b & adj. FCF of €1.5b. It targets ¥250b/yr (~€1.5b/yr) in FCF.
- BS: Healthy headline metrics against €8.6b in net/gross debt (cash on hand small €360m) - leaving leverage against adj. EBITDA at 3.1* (target "around 3* or less"). Dividends have historically not been significant - was €350m last year/34% payout ratio - its targeting a lift to 40% by 2025.
- Guidance; It sees the phased beer tax reduction (2020,2023 & 2026) as a tailwind for Asahi in Japan (~€4.9b of sales). Analyst seem to expect a slow down in revenue growth for the group (though remaining positive) - margin improvement is baked into forecasts - not much clarity on the drivers.
- Vs. peers; close brewer comp's also have a slowdown baked in - to mid single digit (organic) growth over next 3 years -Asahi growth assumptions do seem lower than market. Company runs strong gross margin but vs. peers like AB Inbev, Carlsberg & Heinekan, operating & EBITDA margins are well lower. Strongest market for it is Japan (mgmt reporting 49% market share) & Australia (46% market share) - exposure to NA and Asia outside Japan is negligible/none - no US is similar to Carlsberg sales exposure.
- Rating Risks; Moody's completed a period review on 27th March and affirmed it at Baa1 Stable. It is single rated.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.