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Asia-Europe LNG Cargo Competition to fall in Winter 23: BNEF

LNG

Competition between NWE and Asia for LNG will fall this winter compared to 2022, amid healthy storage levels and weak Asian demand, according to BNEF’s Global LNG base-case winter outlook.

  • Northwest Europe will finish winter with storage levels at 44% full, compared to a 5-year average of 31%, but below storage levels for March 2023. Winter gas demand is likely to rise by 10 bcm compared to winter 2022, driven by the power sector.
  • The outlook for Asian spot prices remains bearish but depends on normal temperatures and no strikes in Australia. Inventory levels remain healthy in China, Korea, and Japan.
  • China is set to lead demand growth in winter, with a 12% year on year rise.
  • Global LNG supply is expected to rise by 6% compared to the previous winter, totalling 220m mt.
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