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Asia FX and Differing Net Foreign Asset Backstops

MARKET INSIGHT
  • Japan MoF intervention to prop up the yen for the time since 1998 came as USDJPY cleared 145, with the yen sitting almost 25% weaker to the dollar than its 2019 pre-pandemic average.
  • The bulk of that depreciation came in 2022, in a trend seen across Asian currencies, albeit with the yen leading the way lower as US-Japan yield differentials blew out.
  • However, from a net foreign asset perspective, Japan stands out with by far the healthiest net foreign assets at 75% GDP as of 2021, next followed by Korea at 40% GDP, which give scope to be drawn upon to help bolster their respective currencies.
  • Instead, sticking to this simple metric, declines in THB (small net foreign assets of 10% GDP) plus INR and PHP (net foreign liabilities of 5-10% GDP) stand out as being more exposed to further downside pressures.


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