MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, October 14

MNI BRIEF: China Sep M2 Rises To Four-Month High

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Grow Steady; Exports +4.3% YTD

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Facing Pressure In Q4

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY16.0 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY16.3 TRLN: PBOC

CHINA SEP EXPORTS +2.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +6.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI BRIEF: China Sep CPI Slows To 0.4% Y/Y On Base Effects

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.20B BSL

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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ASIA FX: CNH & KRW Away From Lows Amid Higher Onshore China Equities

ASIA FX
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For North East Asia currencies the USD is firmer, albeit against CNH and KRW, with TWD displaying some resilience. Focus has largely rested on China stimulus hopes, with positive onshore bourse gains helping push CNH and KRW from session lows. 

  • USD/CNH hoped higher and has tested above 7.0900 today, but sits back near 7.0830 in latest dealings. This is 0.20% weaker in CNH terms. Onshore equities have been volatile, but the CSI 300 sits up around 1.5% at the lunch break. The weekend MOF briefing was firm on rhetoric, particularly on reducing the local government debt burden and stabilizing housing, but the market was arguably looking for greater detail on the numbers. The USD/CNY fixing was close to neutral. We are still awaiting China Sep trade figures as well.
  • Spot USD/KRW got to fresh highs above 1359, levels last seen back in mid August, but we sit back near 1356 in latest dealings. This is still around 0.40% weaker versus end levels from last week. The Kospi is close to session highs, up nearly 0.90%. However, this hasn't helped KRW sentiment much.
  • Comments have crossed from BoK Governor Rhee, who stated the central bank will carefully consider the pace of rate cuts, due to financial stability concerns. This reiterates what the Governor stated on Friday after the BoK cut rates.
  • USD/TWD spot is down slightly outperforming the won and CNH. the pair was last at 32.16, so still close to recent highs. We have seen a better equity inflow backdrop for Taiwan relative to South Korea in recent weeks, which may helping TWD at the margins.  
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For North East Asia currencies the USD is firmer, albeit against CNH and KRW, with TWD displaying some resilience. Focus has largely rested on China stimulus hopes, with positive onshore bourse gains helping push CNH and KRW from session lows. 

  • USD/CNH hoped higher and has tested above 7.0900 today, but sits back near 7.0830 in latest dealings. This is 0.20% weaker in CNH terms. Onshore equities have been volatile, but the CSI 300 sits up around 1.5% at the lunch break. The weekend MOF briefing was firm on rhetoric, particularly on reducing the local government debt burden and stabilizing housing, but the market was arguably looking for greater detail on the numbers. The USD/CNY fixing was close to neutral. We are still awaiting China Sep trade figures as well.
  • Spot USD/KRW got to fresh highs above 1359, levels last seen back in mid August, but we sit back near 1356 in latest dealings. This is still around 0.40% weaker versus end levels from last week. The Kospi is close to session highs, up nearly 0.90%. However, this hasn't helped KRW sentiment much.
  • Comments have crossed from BoK Governor Rhee, who stated the central bank will carefully consider the pace of rate cuts, due to financial stability concerns. This reiterates what the Governor stated on Friday after the BoK cut rates.
  • USD/TWD spot is down slightly outperforming the won and CNH. the pair was last at 32.16, so still close to recent highs. We have seen a better equity inflow backdrop for Taiwan relative to South Korea in recent weeks, which may helping TWD at the margins.