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ASIA FX: Most USD/Asia Up, IDR, INR & PHP Modest Outperformers Since US Election

ASIA FX
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Most USD/Asia pairs are higher in the first part of Monday dealing. This is more so in South East Asia than North East Asia though. USD/CNH has exhibited some degree of volatility, bit last tracked near 7.2000, little changed for the session. Equities were weaker as markets digest the NPC announcement from Friday, but dips have been supported. The USD/CNY fixing bias was modestly negative. 

  • It has been a similar backdrop for spot USD/KRW, which was last near 1395/96. Earlier data showed a slump in exports for the first 10-days of Nov, but day count issues impacted. Household loans continued to rise in Oct, a BOK watchpoint. Local equities are weaker, off by around 1.00%.
  • In SEA, USD/THB has gaped higher by 0.80%, last near 34.30. Spot markets are playing catch up with USD strength post Friday onshore closes. USD/MYR is up towards 4.4100 around 0.60% weaker in ringgit terms.
  • USD/PHP is firmer, like other parts of South East Asia FX, in line with catch up to recent USD gains and weaker yen trends so far today. The pair was last near 58.60, off 0.60% in PHP terms.
  • In the past week, so capturing most of the post US election period, the PHP is the third best EM Asia FX performer, off 0.50% (with INR down 0.33%, and IDR up 0.36%). The weakest performers are THB, MYR, CNH and KRW over this period.
  • The 3 relative outperformers generally have less exposure to trade, in terms of being more domestically orientated, relative to underperformers over the past week. This likely reflects concerns around a return of the Trump administration and potentially fresh protectionist policies in 2025.
  • Spot USD/IDR is up but as per above still outperforming. We were last near 15675/80, so little changed in IDR terms. 
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Most USD/Asia pairs are higher in the first part of Monday dealing. This is more so in South East Asia than North East Asia though. USD/CNH has exhibited some degree of volatility, bit last tracked near 7.2000, little changed for the session. Equities were weaker as markets digest the NPC announcement from Friday, but dips have been supported. The USD/CNY fixing bias was modestly negative. 

  • It has been a similar backdrop for spot USD/KRW, which was last near 1395/96. Earlier data showed a slump in exports for the first 10-days of Nov, but day count issues impacted. Household loans continued to rise in Oct, a BOK watchpoint. Local equities are weaker, off by around 1.00%.
  • In SEA, USD/THB has gaped higher by 0.80%, last near 34.30. Spot markets are playing catch up with USD strength post Friday onshore closes. USD/MYR is up towards 4.4100 around 0.60% weaker in ringgit terms.
  • USD/PHP is firmer, like other parts of South East Asia FX, in line with catch up to recent USD gains and weaker yen trends so far today. The pair was last near 58.60, off 0.60% in PHP terms.
  • In the past week, so capturing most of the post US election period, the PHP is the third best EM Asia FX performer, off 0.50% (with INR down 0.33%, and IDR up 0.36%). The weakest performers are THB, MYR, CNH and KRW over this period.
  • The 3 relative outperformers generally have less exposure to trade, in terms of being more domestically orientated, relative to underperformers over the past week. This likely reflects concerns around a return of the Trump administration and potentially fresh protectionist policies in 2025.
  • Spot USD/IDR is up but as per above still outperforming. We were last near 15675/80, so little changed in IDR terms.