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ASIA FX: MYR & THB Ending September As Outperformers

ASIA FX
GlobalEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsRegion

As has been the case through much of September, in South East Asia FX, the MYR and THB FX have been the standouts. This trend has continued today, with both currencies up around the 0.50% level against the USD. For September as a whole both currencies are up over 5% versus the USD.
• For USD/THB we were last in the 32.20/25 region. The trend is pushing for a test of 32.00, where we may see more official resistance to continued baht gains. Local exporters have already warned around this issue. We do have August trade figures coming up later, with export growth, along with external balances likely to be in focus. The overall BoP balance has been trending higher in recent months. Even gold prices moving off recent highs hasn't dented the positive THB trend.
• USD/MYR got to fresh lows of 4.0947. but sits back around 4.1050 in latest dealings. The last time we were sub the 4.1000 handed was in the first half of 2021. At some stage it will be expected that offshore repatriation inflows start to moderate. Malaysia's macro backdrop is fairly resilient though.
• IDR has underperformed somewhat. USD/IDR is little changed, last near 15120. The softer regional equity tone (outside of China/HK gains) may be weighing at the margins. Recent lows at 15070 remain intact for now. USD/PHP is back sub 56.00, but like USD/IDR has not challenged recent lows.

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As has been the case through much of September, in South East Asia FX, the MYR and THB FX have been the standouts. This trend has continued today, with both currencies up around the 0.50% level against the USD. For September as a whole both currencies are up over 5% versus the USD.
• For USD/THB we were last in the 32.20/25 region. The trend is pushing for a test of 32.00, where we may see more official resistance to continued baht gains. Local exporters have already warned around this issue. We do have August trade figures coming up later, with export growth, along with external balances likely to be in focus. The overall BoP balance has been trending higher in recent months. Even gold prices moving off recent highs hasn't dented the positive THB trend.
• USD/MYR got to fresh lows of 4.0947. but sits back around 4.1050 in latest dealings. The last time we were sub the 4.1000 handed was in the first half of 2021. At some stage it will be expected that offshore repatriation inflows start to moderate. Malaysia's macro backdrop is fairly resilient though.
• IDR has underperformed somewhat. USD/IDR is little changed, last near 15120. The softer regional equity tone (outside of China/HK gains) may be weighing at the margins. Recent lows at 15070 remain intact for now. USD/PHP is back sub 56.00, but like USD/IDR has not challenged recent lows.