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ASIA FX: MYR & THB Unwind Some Recent Outperformance

ASIA FX
GlobalEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsRegion

South East Asia currencies have mostly faltered against the USD in the first part of Tuesday trade. The biggest losses have been seen for MYR and THB, not surprisingly given the recent strong outperformance for both currencies. Losses have been more modest elsewhere. 

  • USD/MYR has rebounded close to 4.1700, after getting under 4.1000 in terms of intra-session lows on Monday. Being clear of month end may have reduced USD selling pressure, whilst the pair was oversold based off the RSI (14) for much of the second half of September. On the topside we have the 20-day EMA back at 4.2400. On the data front we had the Sep PMI ease to 49.5 from 49.7 prior (per S&P).
  • USD/THB has followed a similar trajectory, the pair last in the 32.40/45 region, around 0.80% weaker in baht terms. We did see BoT rhetoric around baht strength pick up on Monday warning of the impact on exports and tourism revenues. This may mean a test of 32.00 won't come without broader USD weakness or a better economic signs locally. The THB TWI (per Goldman Sachs) has surged higher in recent months and is back close to pre Covid levels.
  • USD/IDR is firmer, the pair last near 15200, levels we haven't seen for nearly 2 weeks. The firmer US yield backdrop, coupled with firmer USD trends elsewhere have weighed. USD/PHP is also firmer, the pair above 56.15, in latest dealings. 
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South East Asia currencies have mostly faltered against the USD in the first part of Tuesday trade. The biggest losses have been seen for MYR and THB, not surprisingly given the recent strong outperformance for both currencies. Losses have been more modest elsewhere. 

  • USD/MYR has rebounded close to 4.1700, after getting under 4.1000 in terms of intra-session lows on Monday. Being clear of month end may have reduced USD selling pressure, whilst the pair was oversold based off the RSI (14) for much of the second half of September. On the topside we have the 20-day EMA back at 4.2400. On the data front we had the Sep PMI ease to 49.5 from 49.7 prior (per S&P).
  • USD/THB has followed a similar trajectory, the pair last in the 32.40/45 region, around 0.80% weaker in baht terms. We did see BoT rhetoric around baht strength pick up on Monday warning of the impact on exports and tourism revenues. This may mean a test of 32.00 won't come without broader USD weakness or a better economic signs locally. The THB TWI (per Goldman Sachs) has surged higher in recent months and is back close to pre Covid levels.
  • USD/IDR is firmer, the pair last near 15200, levels we haven't seen for nearly 2 weeks. The firmer US yield backdrop, coupled with firmer USD trends elsewhere have weighed. USD/PHP is also firmer, the pair above 56.15, in latest dealings.