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ASIA FX: SEA FX Rallies On Broad USD Weakness, SGD Leads

ASIA FX
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South East Asia FX is mostly firmer against the USD, albeit to varying degrees. Election uncertainty in the US, after weekend polls showed a very close Presidential race, particularly in the swing states, has reduced USD appeal. So far SGD FX has been the standout, up a little over 0.75%, largely tracking the majors (BBDXY and DXY indices off 0.60%). 

  • USD/SGD is back sub 1.3200, last near 1.3160. This puts us back sub the 100-day EMA (1.3185), while the 20-day is around 1.3150, which marked earlier lows.
  • USD/IDR spot was higher at the open but is now back to flat, last near 15725. The 1 month NDF is close to 0.6% stronger in IDR terms, last near 15760/65. The implied softer US yield backdrop, given higher US Tsy futures (no cash trading today due to Japan holiday), is aiding the IDR. Friday's close amid the surging US yield backdrop was the highest since mid August.
  • USD/MYR is also lower, last back near 4.3600, close to 0.45% firmer. The stronger yuan backdrop will be spilling over to MYR given historical correlations.
  • USD/THB is down to 33.70/75, so off recent highs, while USD/PHP has seen benefit from broader USD softness. The pair is little changed at 58.15/20. Earlier we had a dip in the PMI for Oct, but it remains comfortably in expansion territory. 
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South East Asia FX is mostly firmer against the USD, albeit to varying degrees. Election uncertainty in the US, after weekend polls showed a very close Presidential race, particularly in the swing states, has reduced USD appeal. So far SGD FX has been the standout, up a little over 0.75%, largely tracking the majors (BBDXY and DXY indices off 0.60%). 

  • USD/SGD is back sub 1.3200, last near 1.3160. This puts us back sub the 100-day EMA (1.3185), while the 20-day is around 1.3150, which marked earlier lows.
  • USD/IDR spot was higher at the open but is now back to flat, last near 15725. The 1 month NDF is close to 0.6% stronger in IDR terms, last near 15760/65. The implied softer US yield backdrop, given higher US Tsy futures (no cash trading today due to Japan holiday), is aiding the IDR. Friday's close amid the surging US yield backdrop was the highest since mid August.
  • USD/MYR is also lower, last back near 4.3600, close to 0.45% firmer. The stronger yuan backdrop will be spilling over to MYR given historical correlations.
  • USD/THB is down to 33.70/75, so off recent highs, while USD/PHP has seen benefit from broader USD softness. The pair is little changed at 58.15/20. Earlier we had a dip in the PMI for Oct, but it remains comfortably in expansion territory.