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ASIA FX: THB Surges But BoT Warns On Volatility, PHP & IDR Lag

ASIA FX
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South East Asia currencies are higher across the board, albeit to varying degrees as Friday's session unfolds. Focus on whether the Fed will cut by 50bps, as it kicks off next week's easing cycle, has weighed on broader USD sentiment. US front end yields are down sharply (2yr off 5.5bps). This has offset a more indifferent regional equity backdrop. 

  • THB is the clear standout. USD/THB got to lows of 33.25, before BoT commentary on baht volatility steadied sentiment somewhat. Still at 33.30, baht is 1.3% stronger for the session and comfortably sub recent lows at 33.50. This is fresh lows in the pair back to early 2023. A shift sub 33.00 may be on the cards, although the BoT may look to curb baht gains, either through intervention or more fresh verbal jawboning. A continued run higher in the baht may weigh on external related activity. The RSI (14) is not yet in oversold territory for USD/THB.
  • USD/MYR is tracking lower as well, around 0.45% firmer in MYR terms. The pair last at 4.3150. this is close to recent lows from the end of August. A clean break sub 4.3100 could see early 2023 lows around 4.2250 come into focus.
  • Elsewhere, USD/IDR is a bit of laggard, struggling to make much headway sub the 15400 level. The BI is expected to leave rates on hold next week (per a RTRS survey).
  • It has been a similar backdrop for USD/PHP, which has been unable to much headway south of 56.00. The pair was last 56.05/10. 
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South East Asia currencies are higher across the board, albeit to varying degrees as Friday's session unfolds. Focus on whether the Fed will cut by 50bps, as it kicks off next week's easing cycle, has weighed on broader USD sentiment. US front end yields are down sharply (2yr off 5.5bps). This has offset a more indifferent regional equity backdrop. 

  • THB is the clear standout. USD/THB got to lows of 33.25, before BoT commentary on baht volatility steadied sentiment somewhat. Still at 33.30, baht is 1.3% stronger for the session and comfortably sub recent lows at 33.50. This is fresh lows in the pair back to early 2023. A shift sub 33.00 may be on the cards, although the BoT may look to curb baht gains, either through intervention or more fresh verbal jawboning. A continued run higher in the baht may weigh on external related activity. The RSI (14) is not yet in oversold territory for USD/THB.
  • USD/MYR is tracking lower as well, around 0.45% firmer in MYR terms. The pair last at 4.3150. this is close to recent lows from the end of August. A clean break sub 4.3100 could see early 2023 lows around 4.2250 come into focus.
  • Elsewhere, USD/IDR is a bit of laggard, struggling to make much headway sub the 15400 level. The BI is expected to leave rates on hold next week (per a RTRS survey).
  • It has been a similar backdrop for USD/PHP, which has been unable to much headway south of 56.00. The pair was last 56.05/10.