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ASIA FX: USD/CNH Steady, Short Term Vols Moving Lower, Won Marginally Higher

ASIA FX
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In North East Asia, USD trends are mixed. USD/CNH is little changed, last near 7.2490. The pair hasn't seen much downside despite a softer tone for the USD against the majors (particularly the yen). 

  • The USD/CNY fixing error widened to fresh wides going back to early August. The print on the fixing remains sub 7.2000 at this stage. 1 month implied vol for USD/CNH continues to track lower, last near 4.7%. The market is not expecting fireworks before year end and before the new Trump Administration is in power. 6 month implied vols sit more elevated relative to 2024 averages, last near 6.3%.
  • Local equities are down a touch at the break.
  • For spot USD/KRW we sit back under the 1400 level, last near 1398, around 0.20% stronger in won terms. Earlier data showed a better export backdrop for the first 20-days in Nov. This is a marginal positive for the won but not a trend changer. Local equities are also higher, up nearly 0.35% at this stage.
  • Spot USD/TWD is higher, last up 0.20% to 32.575. We are closing back in on recent Nov highs, at 32.61. The Nvidia result has weighed on US tech futures at the margin, which may be seeing some negative spill over for local stocks (Taiex last down 0.60%).  
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In North East Asia, USD trends are mixed. USD/CNH is little changed, last near 7.2490. The pair hasn't seen much downside despite a softer tone for the USD against the majors (particularly the yen). 

  • The USD/CNY fixing error widened to fresh wides going back to early August. The print on the fixing remains sub 7.2000 at this stage. 1 month implied vol for USD/CNH continues to track lower, last near 4.7%. The market is not expecting fireworks before year end and before the new Trump Administration is in power. 6 month implied vols sit more elevated relative to 2024 averages, last near 6.3%.
  • Local equities are down a touch at the break.
  • For spot USD/KRW we sit back under the 1400 level, last near 1398, around 0.20% stronger in won terms. Earlier data showed a better export backdrop for the first 20-days in Nov. This is a marginal positive for the won but not a trend changer. Local equities are also higher, up nearly 0.35% at this stage.
  • Spot USD/TWD is higher, last up 0.20% to 32.575. We are closing back in on recent Nov highs, at 32.61. The Nvidia result has weighed on US tech futures at the margin, which may be seeing some negative spill over for local stocks (Taiex last down 0.60%).