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Free AccessAsia-Pacific Week Ahead
JAPAN
The highlights of the week shortened by the Sports Day public holiday on
Monday will be the Bank of Japan branch managers meeting on Tuesday as well as
the Economy Watchers' survey on Tuesday and machinery orders data on Wednesday.
The BOJ branch managers report will be watched for clues about economic
conditions as well as any reaction to the BOJ's Tankan business survey and
central bank consumer survey results released last week, which showed declines
in business and consumer inflation expectations. The Watchers' survey and
machinery orders data will be the latest clues on the strength of the economic
expansion. Bank of Japan
Tuesday, the BOJ's branch managers gather in Tokyo for their one-day
quarterly meeting.
Tuesday, around 9:30 am JST (0030 GMT), the BOJ releases brief opening
remarks by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, in which he is expected to repeat the
central bank's latest official outlook that the economy remains on a modest
growth track.
Tuesday, 2 pm JST (0500 GMT), the BOJ releases its quarterly economic
report on Japan's nine regions. In July, all the regions reported that a
virtuous cycle from income to spending was strengthening, thanks to resilient
private consumption and tight labor conditions. Five out of the nine regions
upgraded their economic assessments from three months earlier and the remaining
four left their views unchanged.
Tuesday, 3:15 pm JST (0615 GMT), BOJ Osaka branch manager Kimihiro Etoh
holds a news conference.
Data
Tuesday, 2 pm JST (0500 GMT): The Cabinet Office releases the September
Economy Watchers' Survey. The sentiment index for Japan's current economic
climate stood at 49.7 in August, unchanged from July, when it posted the first
month-on-month drop in four months on a seasonally adjusted basis. News of North
Korea's threat to launch a ballistic missile toward the U.S. territory of Guam
led to some cancellations of overseas holiday tours, hitting Japanese travel
agencies. Long rainy days in August dampened the service sector, including
operators of theme parks and golf courses. The outlook index showed sentiment on
the next two to three months marking the first month-on-month rise in two
months, up 0.8 point at 51.1 in August after a 0.2-point slip in July.
Wednesday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT): The Cabinet Office releases August
machinery orders. The MNI median forecast: core private-sector machinery orders,
which exclude volatile orders for power generation equipment and ships, +1.2% on
month, the second straight m/m rise after +8.0% in July.
Thursday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT): The BOJ releases the September corporate
goods price index (CGPI). The MNI median forecasts: domestic CGPI +3.0% on year
vs. +2.9% in August; +0.2% on month vs. unchanged in August.
Japanese Government Bonds
Japanese government bond yields may be somewhat volatile ahead of the Lower
House election on Oct. 22 and amid the changes in the dollar/yen exchange rate.
The 10-year JGB yield is expected to move between 0.035% and 0.070% this
week against the bank's target of around zero. It rose to 0.080% on Tuesday, the
highest level since July 26, after falling to -0.010% on Sept. 8, the lowest
since Nov. 15, 2016.
Monday: Japanese markets closed for the Sports Day public holiday.
Tuesday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of
1-3, 3-5 and 5-10 years expected.
Wednesday: The Ministry of Finance to auction Y800 billion of 30-year
bonds.
Thursday: The MOF to auction Y4.4 trillion of three-months Treasury
discount bills. BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of
5-10, 10-25 and more than 25 years expected.
CHINA
Mainland markets resume trading Monday after the week-long National
Day/Autumn Festival holiday. The highlights of the week will be September trade
data due Friday and possibly September new bank lending and M2 money supply
growth data possibly released sometime during the week. The market will be
watching for clues about the state of the economy after the strong rise in the
official manufacturing and services PMI data released Sep. 29. That rise was a
surprise, with most analysts expecting the PMI to dip. The market will also be
watching for reaction to the announcement by the People's Bank of China on
Saturday of a targeted Reserve Requirement Ratio cut that will take effect on
January 1, as well as any announcements ahead of the Communist Party Congress
due to begin Oct. 18.
Data
Monday, 9:45 am local (0145 GMT). Caixin to release its services PMI index
for September. In August, the index jumped to 52.7 from 51.5 in July, due to
stronger production and new orders. The market will be watching whether the
Caixin services PMI follows the lead of the official China Federation of
Logistics Professionals/National Bureau of Statistics services PMI, which jumped
to 55.4 from 53.4 in August. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell in September,
while the CFLP/NBS manufacturing PMI rose. Friday, time uncertain (often 10 am
local/0200 GMT). The government will release trade data for September. In
August, exports increased 5.5% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, below the
growth rate of 7.2% in July. Export growth was the lowest since March and slowed
for the third straight month. Imports rose 13.3% year-on-year in August in U.S.
dollar terms, above the 11.0% rise in July. Imports rose for the 10th month in a
row. China posted a $41.99 billion trade surplus in August, below July's $46.74
billion surplus.
Possibly sometime during the week (day and time uncertain): The People's
Bank of China will release financial data for September. In August, new bank
lending rose CNY1.09 trillion, above the CNY825.5 billion in July. August M2
money supply growth rose 8.9% y/y, a record low growth rate, down from the
previous record low of 9.2% in July.
AUSTRALIA
The Reserve Bank of Australia's Financial Stability review, due Friday, is
the highlight of the week but it won't surprise to see business and consumer
confidence surveys generate more market interest.
Monday is a quiet day and on Tuesday at 0930 hours is ANZ-Roy Morgan's
weekly consumer confidence index which will be watched for any decline after
disappointing retail sales published last week and weekend housing auctions
showing more signs of cooling activity. At 1130 hours is National Australia
Bank's business survey for September where the confidence number will be eyed
after a sharp fall in August. Other key numbers of interest will be business
conditions, employment and retail-related figures.
On Wednesday at 1030 hours Westpac-MI publishes consumer sentiment for
October where the balance of factors affecting sentiment point to a fall in the
index. According to Westpac, factors that may influence confidence include the
RBA's decision to again leave rates on hold, more signs of cooling across
Australia's major housing markets, a disappointing retail update and fall in
both the local share market and the Australian dollar. The main positive offset
is jobs data that was strong overall.
On Thursday at 1100 hours is Melbourne-Institute's inflation expectations
survey for October which will be watched closely after September saw a decline
in expectations. At 1130 hours is housing finance data for August where MNI
median forecast is for 0.4% m/m rise after a 2.9% jump in July.
RBA
On Tuesday at 1420 hours local time, Deputy Governor Guy Debelle will
speaks via video link from Sydney at FX global code of conduct conference in
Hong Kong. There's also Q&A but it is unlikely to have anything to immediate
interest to markets.
On Friday, RBA publishes the Financial Stability Review where it will
update its view on vulnerability related to household debt and the housing
market -- whether there is some improvement in the risks since the last report
in April.
NEW ZEALAND
It's a light week where political developments will remain center-stage
after the final counting of votes in the general elections proved to be
inconclusive. It is still unclear which side NZ First will support and whatever
it does will determine if National (slightly higher odds) or Labor Party forms
the government. Data releases during the week include electronic card
transactions for September, due Tuesday at 1045 hours local time.
RBNZ
No major data or event is due from the RBNZ
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$J$$$,M$L$$$,M$N$$$,M$Q$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.