Asia-Pacific Week Ahead

     JAPAN 

     The highlights of the week shortened by the Sports Day public holiday on

Monday will be the Bank of Japan branch managers meeting on Tuesday as well as

the Economy Watchers' survey on Tuesday and machinery orders data on Wednesday.

The BOJ branch managers report will be watched for clues about economic

conditions as well as any reaction to the BOJ's Tankan business survey and

central bank consumer survey results released last week, which showed declines

in business and consumer inflation expectations. The Watchers' survey and

machinery orders data will be the latest clues on the strength of the economic

expansion. Bank of Japan

     Tuesday, the BOJ's branch managers gather in Tokyo for their one-day

quarterly meeting.

     Tuesday, around 9:30 am JST (0030 GMT), the BOJ releases brief opening

remarks by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, in which he is expected to repeat the

central bank's latest official outlook that the economy remains on a modest

growth track.

     Tuesday, 2 pm JST (0500 GMT), the BOJ releases its quarterly economic

report on Japan's nine regions. In July, all the regions reported that a

virtuous cycle from income to spending was strengthening, thanks to resilient

private consumption and tight labor conditions. Five out of the nine regions

upgraded their economic assessments from three months earlier and the remaining

four left their views unchanged.

     Tuesday, 3:15 pm JST (0615 GMT), BOJ Osaka branch manager Kimihiro Etoh

holds a news conference.

     Data

     Tuesday, 2 pm JST (0500 GMT): The Cabinet Office releases the September

Economy Watchers' Survey. The sentiment index for Japan's current economic

climate stood at 49.7 in August, unchanged from July, when it posted the first

month-on-month drop in four months on a seasonally adjusted basis. News of North

Korea's threat to launch a ballistic missile toward the U.S. territory of Guam

led to some cancellations of overseas holiday tours, hitting Japanese travel

agencies. Long rainy days in August dampened the service sector, including

operators of theme parks and golf courses. The outlook index showed sentiment on

the next two to three months marking the first month-on-month rise in two

months, up 0.8 point at 51.1 in August after a 0.2-point slip in July.

     Wednesday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT): The Cabinet Office releases August

machinery orders. The MNI median forecast: core private-sector machinery orders,

which exclude volatile orders for power generation equipment and ships, +1.2% on

month, the second straight m/m rise after +8.0% in July.

     Thursday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT): The BOJ releases the September corporate

goods price index (CGPI). The MNI median forecasts: domestic CGPI +3.0% on year

vs. +2.9% in August; +0.2% on month vs. unchanged in August.

     Japanese Government Bonds

     Japanese government bond yields may be somewhat volatile ahead of the Lower

House election on Oct. 22 and amid the changes in the dollar/yen exchange rate.

     The 10-year JGB yield is expected to move between 0.035% and 0.070% this

week against the bank's target of around zero. It rose to 0.080% on Tuesday, the

highest level since July 26, after falling to -0.010% on Sept. 8, the lowest

since Nov. 15, 2016.

     Monday: Japanese markets closed for the Sports Day public holiday.

     Tuesday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of

1-3, 3-5 and 5-10 years expected.

     Wednesday: The Ministry of Finance to auction Y800 billion of 30-year

bonds.

     Thursday: The MOF to auction Y4.4 trillion of three-months Treasury

discount bills. BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of

5-10, 10-25 and more than 25 years expected.

     CHINA

     Mainland markets resume trading Monday after the week-long National

Day/Autumn Festival holiday. The highlights of the week will be September trade

data due Friday and possibly September new bank lending and M2 money supply

growth data possibly released sometime during the week. The market will be

watching for clues about the state of the economy after the strong rise in the

official manufacturing and services PMI data released Sep. 29. That rise was a

surprise, with most analysts expecting the PMI to dip. The market will also be

watching for reaction to the announcement by the People's Bank of China on

Saturday of a targeted Reserve Requirement Ratio cut that will take effect on

January 1, as well as any announcements ahead of the Communist Party Congress

due to begin Oct. 18.

     Data

     Monday, 9:45 am local (0145 GMT). Caixin to release its services PMI index

for September. In August, the index jumped to 52.7 from 51.5 in July, due to

stronger production and new orders. The market will be watching whether the

Caixin services PMI follows the lead of the official China Federation of

Logistics Professionals/National Bureau of Statistics services PMI, which jumped

to 55.4 from 53.4 in August. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell in September,

while the CFLP/NBS manufacturing PMI rose. Friday, time uncertain (often 10 am

local/0200 GMT). The government will release trade data for September. In

August, exports increased 5.5% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, below the

growth rate of 7.2% in July. Export growth was the lowest since March and slowed

for the third straight month. Imports rose 13.3% year-on-year in August in U.S.

dollar terms, above the 11.0% rise in July. Imports rose for the 10th month in a

row. China posted a $41.99 billion trade surplus in August, below July's $46.74

billion surplus.

     Possibly sometime during the week (day and time uncertain): The People's

Bank of China will release financial data for September. In August, new bank

lending rose CNY1.09 trillion, above the CNY825.5 billion in July. August M2

money supply growth rose 8.9% y/y, a record low growth rate, down from the

previous record low of 9.2% in July.

     AUSTRALIA 

     The Reserve Bank of Australia's Financial Stability review, due Friday, is

the highlight of the week but it won't surprise to see business and consumer

confidence surveys generate more market interest. 

     Monday is a quiet day and on Tuesday at 0930 hours is ANZ-Roy Morgan's

weekly consumer confidence index which will be watched for any decline after

disappointing retail sales published last week and weekend housing auctions

showing more signs of cooling activity. At 1130 hours is National Australia

Bank's business survey for September where the confidence number will be eyed

after a sharp fall in August. Other key numbers of interest will be business

conditions, employment and retail-related figures. 

     On Wednesday at 1030 hours Westpac-MI publishes consumer sentiment for

October where the balance of factors affecting sentiment point to a fall in the

index. According to Westpac, factors that may influence confidence include the

RBA's decision to again leave rates on hold, more signs of cooling across

Australia's major housing markets, a disappointing retail update and fall in

both the local share market and the Australian dollar. The main positive offset

is jobs data that was strong overall. 

     On Thursday at 1100 hours is Melbourne-Institute's inflation expectations

survey for October which will be watched closely after September saw a decline

in expectations. At 1130 hours is housing finance data for August where MNI

median forecast is for 0.4% m/m rise after a 2.9% jump in July. 

     RBA 

     On Tuesday at 1420 hours local time, Deputy Governor Guy Debelle will

speaks via video link from Sydney at FX global code of conduct conference in

Hong Kong. There's also Q&A but it is unlikely to have anything to immediate

interest to markets. 

     On Friday, RBA publishes the Financial Stability Review where it will

update its view on vulnerability related to household debt and the housing

market -- whether there is some improvement in the risks since the last report

in April. 

     NEW ZEALAND 

     It's a light week where political developments will remain center-stage

after the final counting of votes in the general elections proved to be

inconclusive. It is still unclear which side NZ First will support and whatever

it does will determine if National (slightly higher odds) or Labor Party forms

the government. Data releases during the week include electronic card

transactions for September, due Tuesday at 1045 hours local time. 

     RBNZ 

     No major data or event is due from the RBNZ

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$J$$$,M$L$$$,M$N$$$,M$Q$$$]