Asia-Pacific Week Ahead

     CHINA

     This week will again be dominated by the 19th Communist Party Congress. The

new Politburo Standing Committee, which sets government policy, will be

introduced Tuesday. The market will focus on whether President Xi Jinping was

able to fill the panel with close allies, ensuring implementation of his

preferred policies. The market will watch in particular whether Prime Minister

Li Keqiang and Wang Qishan, the powerful ant-corruption czar who has reached

retirement age, will be reappointed to the committee.

     The market will have to wait another week to see if there is evidence

beyond the stronger-than-expected economic data in September to support the bold

prediction last week by People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan that

growth in the second half of the year would reach 7%.

     Data

     Monday, Oct. 23, at 10:00 CST (0200 GMT): The National Bureau of Statistics

is scheduled to release housing price data for major cities in September. The

property boom is expected to have cooled further as recent curbs on the property

sector continue to bite. In August, 53 out of the 70 cities surveyed experienced

a slowdown in price growth on a month-on-month basis in August.

     Friday, Oct. 27, about 09:30 CST (0130 GMT): Data on the combined profits

of Chinese industrial firms in September will be released by the National Bureau

of Statistics (NBS). Profits rose 24% year-on-year in August, a four-year high,

due in part to rising prices.

     JAPAN

     The focus this week will be on the results of Sunday's Lower House election

and the impact this will have on government policies. The latest poll showed

that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition winning around 300 of the 465

seats in the Lower House, while the Party of Hope led by Tokyo Governor Yuriko

Koike is expected to lose much of its initial momentum. If Prime Minister Abe

maintains his power in the government, as widely anticipated, he is expected to

continue his reflationary policy mix of aggressive monetary easing, increased

fiscal spending, and structural reforms. A victory by Abe's coalition would

temporarily increase downward pressure on JGB yields and the yen and boost the

stock markets.

     The market will also eye CPI data due Friday for any signs that inflation

is rising towards the Bank of Japan's 2% target.

     Bank of Japan

     Monday, 2:00 pm JST (0500 GMT): The Bank of Japan releases its semi-annual

Financial System Report. In the key report, the BOJ will say that both excessive

risk-taking in real estate and foreign bond investments -- as well as the risk

that banks have become unwilling to lend because of low profit margins -- have

not improved or worsened since the last report in April, when the BOJ warned

about these side effects of its aggressive monetary easing. The BOJ is also

likely to maintain the view it presented in April that "signs of overheating in

a large part of financial and economic activity have not been observed."

     Data

     Monday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT): The BOJ releases its quarterly Senior Loan

Officer Opinion Survey for October. In the previous survey, the index for

corporate fund demand -- which is calculated by subtracting the number of banks

reporting a decline in lending from the number of those reporting an increase -

dropped to +3 in July from +4 in April and +7 in January.

     Thursday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT): The BOJ releases September service

producer price index (SPPI). August SPPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, the eighth

straight gain following +2.6% in July. On the month, SPPI was unchanged vs.

+0.3% in July.

     Friday, 8:30 am JST (2330 GMT): The Ministry of Internal Affairs and

Communications releases September national and, October Tokyo CPI.

     The MNI survey median forecasts: September national core CPI +0.8% on year,

which would be the ninth straight rise following +0.7% in August. October Tokyo

core CPI +0.6% on year, which would be the fourth straight rise following +0.5%

in September.

     Japanese Government Bonds

     The 10-year JGB yield is expected to move between 0.040% and 0.080% this

week, above the BOJ's target of around zero. It rose to 0.080% on Tuesday, the

highest level since July 26 after falling to -0.010% on Sept. 8, the lowest

since Nov. 15, 2016.

     Wednesday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of

1-3 years, 3-5 years, 10-25 years and more than 25 years expected. 

     Thursday: The Ministry of Finance to auction Y2.2 trillion of 2-year bonds

and Y4.4 trillion of three-month Treasury discount bills.

     Friday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of

5-10 years, 10-25 years and more than 25 years expected.

     AUSTRALIA

     The highlight of the week will be third quarter consumer price inflation

data. While it won't have impact on monetary policy in the near term, it will be

an important determinant on how long the policy will remain on hold.

     RBA

     Thursday, 1845 AEDT (0745 GMT): Deputy Governor Guy Debelle will speak at

an event in Sydney on "Uncertainty," with Q&A after. There will be a lot of

interest in both the speech and Q&A given the event is a day after the release

of Q3 CPI.

     Data

     Tuesday, 0930 AEDT (2230 GMT Monday): ANZ-Roy Morgan's weekly consumer

confidence data.

     Wednesday, 1130 AEDT (0030 GMT): The Australian Bureau of Statistics will

release Q3 CPI. The MNI survey median forecast is for headline CPI to accelerate

sharply to +0.8% q/q from +0.2% in Q2 due mainly to a rise in electricity and

gas prices. The y/y CPI is expected to rise 2.0% from +1.9%. Underlying CPI is

expected to rise 0.5% q/q, the same as Q2 but y/y is seen accelerating to 2.0%

from +1.8%.

     Thursday, 1130 AEDT (0030 GMT): The ABS will publish trade price indexes

for Q3. The MNI survey median forecast calls for the import price index to fall

2.0% q/q compared with a 0.1% drop in Q2. The export price index is forecast to

fall 3.5% q/q versus a 5.7% drop in Q2. The data points to flat or second

consecutive drop in terms of trade.

     Friday, 1130 AEDT (0030 GMT): The ABS will publish the Q3 producer price

index. The index rose 0.5% q/q and 1.7% y/y in Q2.

     NEW ZEALAND

     The focus will continue to on political developments following news last

Friday that the Labour Party would form the next government. There is great

interest in how the new government's policies take shape, especially those

related to immigration, the housing market, and the exchange rate.

     Data

     Thursday, 1045 NZDT (2145 GMT Wednesday): Trade balance data for September

will be released. The MNI median forecast is for a deficit of NZ$975 million

compared with NZ$1.2 billion deficit in August.

     RBNZ

     No major data or events are due from the RBNZ

[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$L$$$,M$N$$$,M$Q$$$]