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Asked On RN 'Ultimatum' PM Says 'We Need Stability'

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Wires reporting comments from Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Asked about a possible 'ultimatum' from the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) Barnier says only that "We need stability". The 'ultimatum' refers to comments from RN parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen on 28 Oct in which she said Barnier had until 2 Dec to change the budget to meet the RN's 'red lines' or risk a censure motion (see 'FRANCE: Le Pen Sets 2 Dec Deadline For PM To Respond To 4 RN 'Red Lines' 1000GMT).

  • Political betting markets serve to highlight the fluid and erratic French political environment at present. Data from Polymarket shows Michel Barnier with a 37% implied probability of leaving office in 2024. Over the past seven days, this number has been as low as 17% and as high as 59%. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Barnier Leaving Office in 2024, %

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Wires reporting comments from Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Asked about a possible 'ultimatum' from the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) Barnier says only that "We need stability". The 'ultimatum' refers to comments from RN parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen on 28 Oct in which she said Barnier had until 2 Dec to change the budget to meet the RN's 'red lines' or risk a censure motion (see 'FRANCE: Le Pen Sets 2 Dec Deadline For PM To Respond To 4 RN 'Red Lines' 1000GMT).

  • Political betting markets serve to highlight the fluid and erratic French political environment at present. Data from Polymarket shows Michel Barnier with a 37% implied probability of leaving office in 2024. Over the past seven days, this number has been as low as 17% and as high as 59%. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Barnier Leaving Office in 2024, %

Keep reading...Show less