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Assessing The Latest Round Of Cheapening

US TSYS

TYM2 hovering just above Tuesday’s low at the re-open, -0-07 at 118-28+.

  • To recap, Tuesday saw another extension of the recent bearish impulse, with 30s briefly showing above 3.00% on a couple of occasions, closing just below that psychological level. The wider Tsy curve bear flattened, withs 2 and 3s closing ~15bp cheaper, while 30s were ~5bp cheaper on the day come the bell.
  • TU block sales and TU/WN block flattener flow aided the weakness in the front end, while St. Louis Fed President Bullard’s 75p hike comments (which crossed on Monday) still resonated (although most attribute little chance to such a move a present). Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Evans (’23 voter) & Atlanta Fed President Bostic (’24 voter) offered little new for markets to ponder.
  • Stronger than expected housing data and IG issuance fed into the cheapening mix, with post-earnings bank issuance underway.
  • Fedspeak from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (’23 voter) and the latest round of PBoC LPR fixings headline the regional docket in Asia-Pac hours. Looking ahead to NY hours, existing home sales data will cross, with the release of the Fed’s beige book set to be supplemented by Fedspeak from Bostic, Daly (’24 voter) & Evans.
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TYM2 hovering just above Tuesday’s low at the re-open, -0-07 at 118-28+.

  • To recap, Tuesday saw another extension of the recent bearish impulse, with 30s briefly showing above 3.00% on a couple of occasions, closing just below that psychological level. The wider Tsy curve bear flattened, withs 2 and 3s closing ~15bp cheaper, while 30s were ~5bp cheaper on the day come the bell.
  • TU block sales and TU/WN block flattener flow aided the weakness in the front end, while St. Louis Fed President Bullard’s 75p hike comments (which crossed on Monday) still resonated (although most attribute little chance to such a move a present). Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Evans (’23 voter) & Atlanta Fed President Bostic (’24 voter) offered little new for markets to ponder.
  • Stronger than expected housing data and IG issuance fed into the cheapening mix, with post-earnings bank issuance underway.
  • Fedspeak from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (’23 voter) and the latest round of PBoC LPR fixings headline the regional docket in Asia-Pac hours. Looking ahead to NY hours, existing home sales data will cross, with the release of the Fed’s beige book set to be supplemented by Fedspeak from Bostic, Daly (’24 voter) & Evans.