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Atlanta Fed GDPNow For Q2 Cut More Heavily After PCE Data

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  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q2 has been revised down again for the second day running, to 2.25% from the 2.7% with yesterday’s update and 3.0% from Jun 20.
  • It’s one of the lowest for the Q2 vintage.
  • The main driver for the latest move came from real consumption being cut from 2.5 to 1.8%, whilst real gross private domestic investment was also revised down from 8.8% to 8.7%.
  • It leaves GDP growth set for a more limited acceleration from the 1.4% seen with Thursday’s revisions for Q1.
  • Consumption is still seen to accelerate on the quarter after the 1.0pp contribution in Q1, but the 1.25pp is revised down from 1.7pp in yesterday’s forecast.
  • Changes in inventories still play a large role in the estimated quarterly acceleration, shifting from -0.4pp in Q1 to an assumed +0.8pp.
  • The next update will follow on Monday after ISM manufacturing and construction spending.

Source: Atlanta Fed

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  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q2 has been revised down again for the second day running, to 2.25% from the 2.7% with yesterday’s update and 3.0% from Jun 20.
  • It’s one of the lowest for the Q2 vintage.
  • The main driver for the latest move came from real consumption being cut from 2.5 to 1.8%, whilst real gross private domestic investment was also revised down from 8.8% to 8.7%.
  • It leaves GDP growth set for a more limited acceleration from the 1.4% seen with Thursday’s revisions for Q1.
  • Consumption is still seen to accelerate on the quarter after the 1.0pp contribution in Q1, but the 1.25pp is revised down from 1.7pp in yesterday’s forecast.
  • Changes in inventories still play a large role in the estimated quarterly acceleration, shifting from -0.4pp in Q1 to an assumed +0.8pp.
  • The next update will follow on Monday after ISM manufacturing and construction spending.

Source: Atlanta Fed