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Atlanta Fed GDPNow Slides Further To -2% For Q2

  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q2 has been revised down even further from yesterday’s -1.01 to -2.08% annualized, following the ISM miss and weak construction spending in May (albeit with a positive revision to April).
  • Consumption takes the brunt once again, now seen adding just 0.5pp to growth having been eyed at 1.8pp in the Jun 27 update. Non-resi investment makes up the rest of the downward revision, falling from +0.26pp to -0.05pp.
  • Should it be realized, it would mark a technical recession after the -1.6% annualized in Q1, with the main drag in Q2 coming from an inventory hit estimated at -2.4pps. The last technical recessions were seen in 1H20 and 1H09.

Source: Atlanta Fed

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