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Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Swings Back Higher, 3.4%

  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q4 continue to swing, the latest being revised back to 3.4% from 2.8% having previously been north of 4%.
  • It follows the 2.9% in Q3 as GDP growth is seen continuing to recover from an average -1.1% contraction through 1H22.
  • Personal consumption remains a large driver for projected Q4 growth, seen adding 2.5pps to annualised GDP growth after an average of just 1.2pps through the first three quarters of the year.
  • Growth does however continued to be buoyed by a rebound from the inventories component, alone seen adding 0.5pps to Q4 GDP growth.

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