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ATM Vols Back Over 50%: Skew Still to Downside

OIL OPTIONS

Crude puts skew remains unchanged as implied volatility ticks back above 50%

  • Large daily and intraday price swings have pushed WTI and Brent implied volatilities back up after drifting lower during the second half of Jul. High market uncertainty over both supply and demand combining with low liquidity continues to drive market moves.
  • Aggregate open interest for Brent and WTI has gradually fallen over the last 18 months and is approximately 35% lower than start of 2021 levels.
  • The Dec22 skew of puts over calls is just over 4% as it has been for much of the last month. The market switched from a focus on supply constraints resulting in a 5% call premium in March to focus on the downside economic risks.

Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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