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AT&T Q2 Broadly In Line With Strong Postpaid Additions And FCF; Slight Credit Positive

COMMUNICATIONS

Rating: Baa2/BBB/BBB+

  • Q2 revenue -0.4% YoY (-0.6% vs. consensus) with mobility revenues (~70% of business) +0.8% weighed upon by equipment revenues, business wireline revenues ( ~15% of business) -9.9% and consumer wireline revenues (~10% of business) +3%. Business wirelines facing weakness on low demand for legacy voice/data services and product simplification.
  • EBITDA-adj +2.6% YoY ( +0.2% vs. consensus) with the margin +110bps YoY to 38%.
  • KPIs look strong with 419k postpaid adds vs. consensus of 280k and 239k Fiber net adds vs. 253k with ARPU increases for both.

  • CFO of USD 9.1bn down from USD 9.9bn in Q223 on lower net securitisation.
  • CapEx of USD 4.4bn up from USD 4.3bn in Q223 (-5.5% vs. consensus).
  • FCF of USD 4.6b up from USD 4.2bn in Q223 (+11.2% vs. consensus) including USD 0.7bn from DIRECTV.
  • Net debt of USD 126.9bn down from USD 128.7bn at Q1. LTM EBITDA leverage looks to be 2.87x from 2.9x at Q1 against the guidance of being in the 2.5x range in H125.

  • FY guidance confirmed.
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