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Attention On Feb PPI

US DATA

Re Feb PPI data out at 0830ET - this data point is usually largely overlooked by markets but SHOULD have more attention paid on it today given the influence of producer price pressure on the overall inflation outlook in this part of the cycle, and very high ISM input prices.

  • Recall February ISM Manufacturing release saw Prices Paid gauge hit a cycle high (and highest since 2008) level of 86. That's up from 35.3 in April at the recent bottom.
  • Final demand PPI seen +0.5% M/M in BBG survey with range of 0.2% to 1.2%, vs +1.3% in Jan; Jan's figure was the highest since they revised the series going back to 2009. Per DJ for that month: "Most of the increase in wholesale prices ... was tied to higher costs of gasoline, health care and financial advice and planning."
  • Feb Ex-food and energy +0.2% M/M with range of 0.0% to 0.8%, vs +1.2% in Jan.

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