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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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The RBA’s official rate is currently 40bps below that of the BoC, but this differential appears set to narrow to +15 bps later today if market pricing proves accurate.
- The market is pricing in around a 90% chance of a rate cut today, up from less than 50% two weeks ago.
- A narrowing in the AU-CA official rate differential today aligns with market expectations that the official rate in Canada will fall below that of Australia by year-end. If this occurs, it would be the first time since 2018.
- Even more interestingly, looking 12 months ahead using 3-month swap rates 1-year forward (1Y3M), the market now expects the RBA’s official rate to be 75 bps higher than the BoC’s.
Figure 1: AU & CA 1Y3M Rates (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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