October 23, 2024 23:52 GMT
AUD: AUD/USD Drops As Tsys Yields Rise, Flash PMIs Mixed
AUD
AUD/USD fell to a low of 0.6614 overnight, its lowest level since August 16, driven by USD demand amid rising Treasury yields. The pair is currently trading around 0.6632 down 0.72% for the past day. Further outsize moves may be limited today due to $1.13b options at a strike price of 0.6605 set to expire today.
- ACGBS yields are 1-3bps cheaper this morning, with the 2yr +1.2bps at 4% while the 10yr +2.6bps to 4.49%, nearing a critical resistance level of 4.55%.
- Bearish sentiment persists, exacerbated by fading hopes for Chinese stimulus measures and a stronger USD. The 14-day RSI sits at 36, while the MACD indicator is showing signs of a turn around, although it is still printing decent size red bars.
- Looking at technical levels, price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This exposes 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.6576, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6737, the 20-day EMA.
- Private-sector business activity in Australia contracted at a slower pace in October, with the Judo Bank Composite PMI Output Index rising to 49.8 from 49.6. The services sector showed resilience, with the Services PMI at 50.6, while the manufacturing sector continued to struggle, as reflected in a drop to 43.7 for the Manufacturing PMI Output Index and 46.6 for the Manufacturing PMI. Indicating a significant disparity between the service and manufacturing sectors amid weak market conditions and underlying demand.
- Later today the RBA will release its annual report at 3:30 PM Sydney time
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