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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUD
Pressure on the AUD/EUR has continued through early March, falling ~2%, the cross has printed its lowest level since February 2022.
- AUD was pressured yesterday in light of a dovish tone to the RBAs post meeting statement. This morning RBA Governor Lowe comments this morning reinforced the statement, noting that the RBA is getting closer to a pause but that the peak in rates hasn't been reached.
- In the rates space ECB terminal rates pricing has risen in OIS markets from 3.9% to ~4.1% over the last week. RBA dated futures have fallen in recent dealing to ~4%.
- AU-EU 2 Year Swap Rate differentials continue to narrow, printing a cycle high of -40bps narrowing from below -250bps seen in mid 2022.
- Technically the pair is in a downtrend. Bears look to target the 2021 low at $0.6084. Bulls first look to break the 20-Day EMA at $0.6371 to turn the tide.
Fig 1: AUD/EUR Daily Spot, EMAs
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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